Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x96d7…d298 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$341 (-62%) realized −$301 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$420
sports 22% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 33% 33% -85.2%
≤30d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 33% 33% -85.2%
≤90d 3 +14.8% +3.9% 33% 33% -85.2%
all 3 +14.8% +3.9% 33% 33% -85.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 33% -85.2%
10% -6.0% 33% -86.6%
15% -15.1% 33% -87.9%
20% -23.4% 33% -89.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$210 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $100 $60 −$40 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$51 +244%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $222 −$220 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $72 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $222 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.62 · official $59.62 (match) · 7 history records