Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x96db…ae17 other 7 markets active 1d ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-4%) realized −$1 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$350now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$20
world 22% −$6
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 67% 33% -13.9%
all 3 -0.0% -9.6% 67% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 33% -13.9%
10% -18.2% 33% -22.1%
15% -26.1% 33% -29.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$25 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$350
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage72d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $50 +$19 +39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 17 $60 −$25 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 13 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 31h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $72 7d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $69 65d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? SELL No 40¢ $35 69d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY No 69¢ $60 72d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $50 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.43 · official $350.43 (match) · 17 history records