Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x96de…43e3 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 241d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$2
other 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 8 -6.5% -15.4% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage241d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 97¢ 98¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -16%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $218 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1 $0 -18%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 24 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 45m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 54m
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 3h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 5h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 9h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 12h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $19 177d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $19 177d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $19 215d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 240d
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 240d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.19 · official $197.19 (match) · 21 history records