Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
96 0x96e0…200a crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-29%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$68
politics 7% −$4
crypto 7% −$4
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 50% +111.7%
≤30d 2 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 50% +111.7%
≤90d 2 +17.3% +6.1% 50% 50% +111.7%
all 8 -70.7% -73.5% 12% 12% +76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.5% 12% +76.5%
10% -76.0% 12% +59.6%
15% -78.3% 12% +44.2%
20% -80.4% 12% +30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +134% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt +95% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$1 · ×46.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.64 per $1 lost it wins $6.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage106d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$69 +135%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -97%
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $119 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? BUY No 4¢ $1 106d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $1 106d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 106d
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8) BUY No 0¢ $4 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 106d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records