Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96e2…3eb0 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$457 (-37%) realized −$315 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$637
other 14% +$71
crypto 9% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -52.7% -57.2% 33% 33% -53.8%
≤30d 9 -52.7% -57.2% 33% 33% -53.8%
≤90d 9 -52.7% -57.2% 33% 33% -53.8%
all 9 -52.7% -57.2% 33% 33% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.2% 33% -53.8%
10% -61.3% 33% -58.3%
15% -65.1% 22% -62.3%
20% -68.5% 11% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$117 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 52¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $111 +$33 +29%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $111 −$110 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $112 −$110 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $244 −$241 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 +$71 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $111 +$61 +55%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $115 −$113 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 54¢ $81 1h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 50¢ $63 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $143 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 76¢ $111 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 47¢ $111 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 57¢ $112 6h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $244 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $244 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 70¢ $172 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $111 24h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 64¢ $111 28h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 26¢ $18 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $115 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.14 (match) · 14 history records