Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

96 0x96e2…cbd7 other 26 markets active 3h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$18 (+10%) realized +$18 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%6W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-23.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-15.4%	-23.4%	27%	27%	+3.1%
≤30d	22	-15.4%	-23.4%	27%	27%	+3.1%
≤90d	22	-15.4%	-23.4%	27%	27%	+3.1%
all	22	-15.4%	-23.4%	27%	27%	+3.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.4%	27%	+3.1%
10%	-30.7%	23%	-6.8%
15%	-37.4%	18%	-15.8%
20%	-43.6%	18%	-24.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -17% → late -14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.3 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$39

Realized+$18

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses6 / 16

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)22 / 26

History coverage5d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	66¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$12	$12	+$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	51¢	50¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$12	+$31	+255%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$2	+$7	+364%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$3	+27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$8	−$5	-63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$9	−$6	-68%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$12	−$6	-46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$18	+$16	+90%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$2	$0	-5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$3	$0	-4%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-99%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals	Jun 12	$3	−$2	-76%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 12	$6	$0	-6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$12	−$12	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$7	+$12	+172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 09	$10	−$5	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 09	$5	+$1	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$2	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$12	3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$7	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	22¢	$3	8h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai	BUY Michael Chandler	19¢	$5	8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$7	10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$10	10h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$2	11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$6	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$15	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	18¢	$2	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	58¢	$3	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	25¢	$3	2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	40¢	$3	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	62¢	$5	2d
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria	BUY Federico Coria	64¢	$1	2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	31¢	$1	2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 13.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	9¢	$2	2d
Jonathan David: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	35¢	$3	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	46¢	$3	2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	29¢	$3	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.71 · official $38.71 (match) · 57 history records