Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96e6…b0c6 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$1
other 19% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 17% -8.3%
≤30d 16 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 6% -9.2%
all 33 +0.5% -9.1% 42% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage380d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $68 +$2 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $31 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $65 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jul 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $29 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $15 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $17 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $32 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $31 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.57 · official $36.42 (match) · 109 history records