Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
96 0x96e7…9adb sports 8 markets active 5d ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$165 (+18%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$67
14 days+$67
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$162
politics 34% −$1
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤30d 1 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 6 +46.0% +32.1% 67% 50% +6.7%
all 8 +32.7% +20.0% 50% 38% +6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 38% +6.5%
10% +8.5% 38% -3.7%
15% -1.9% 38% -13.0%
20% -11.6% 25% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$41 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage91d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $39 +$67 +172%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $165 −$162 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 06 $70 +$102 +146%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $310 $0 -0%
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 22 $315 +$155 +49%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $5 $0 -8%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $6 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $39 5d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 48¢ $165 38d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 40¢ $70 51d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 69d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 72d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $310 75d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $310 81d
Rangers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 67¢ $315 89d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 92d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 93d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 94d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records