Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96ef…5523 world 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30,572 (-9%) realized −$30,608 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate45%68W / 82L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,177per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$253
7 days−$307
14 days−$282
30 days−$2,623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$28,036
politics 10% +$3,748
sports 3% +$321
finance 2% −$95
other 1% −$283
crypto 0% +$5
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 57% 29% -13.6%
≤30d 45 -7.1% -15.9% 49% 11% -12.1%
≤90d 150 -4.9% -14.0% 45% 13% -15.8%
all 150 -4.9% -14.0% 45% 13% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 13% -15.8%
10% -22.2% 7% -23.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.7% 5% -31.3%
20% -36.6% 1% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,996) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$598 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$485
Realized−$30,608
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses68 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions2
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$2,177
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 56¢ 63¢ $350 $393 +$43 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes $99 $92 −$7 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $497 −$2 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $861 +$215 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,530 +$45 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2,261 −$4 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $313 +$71 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,261 −$631 -50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Hai Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $223 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $552 +$77 +14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $210 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $179 −$6 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 12 $40 −$8 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $56 −$19 -35%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 10 $65 −$10 -15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $98 −$33 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 09 $148 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 08 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $215 +$14 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 07 $199 +$16 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 05 $836 +$12 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June? Jun 05 $156 −$41 -26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $275 −$47 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 05 $86 −$15 -17%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $69 −$3 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 03 $264 −$22 -8%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $335 +$90 +27%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $174 +$16 +9%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $29 $0 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $224 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,866 −$1,353 -47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $10,965 +$919 +8%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $255 +$3 +1%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $551 +$62 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $189 −$40 -22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $136 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,814 +$34 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $3,819 −$2,186 -57%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $2,408 +$58 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 22 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $95 −$16 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $1,697 −$242 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $684 −$45 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $10,791 +$471 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 20 $4,199 −$79 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 20 $138 −$18 -13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026? May 19 $380 +$4 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $520 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 18 $488 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $97 51m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $2 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $17 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $210 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes $0 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $395 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 34¢ $28 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 34¢ $40 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $32 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $69 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $443 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $483 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $107 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $221 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $240 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $484.88 · official $474.03 · 3500 history records