Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96f0…6f05 crypto 678 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate84%568W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -0.4% -9.9% 92% 1% -10.3%
≤30d 560 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 678 +0.1% -9.5% 84% 12% -9.5%
all 678 +0.1% -9.5% 84% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 12% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses568 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)678 / 678
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.00 (match) · 1388 history records