Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:15:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
96 0x96f2…080e other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$899 (-8%) realized −$899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate65%31W / 17L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$1,116
14 days−$1,108
30 days−$1,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$1,025
sports 1% −$96
crypto 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.7% -14.6% 64% 50% -18.8%
≤30d 48 -1.5% -10.8% 65% 54% -18.7%
≤90d 48 -1.5% -10.8% 65% 54% -18.7%
all 48 -1.5% -10.8% 65% 54% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 54% -18.7%
10% -19.4% 38% -26.4%
15% -27.2% 25% -33.5%
20% -34.3% 10% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$142 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses31 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage10d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 81¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$7 -92%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 −$21 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $56 −$29 -51%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $57 −$1 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $231 −$196 -85%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $211 +$21 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $157 +$53 +34%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $106 +$51 +48%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $81 +$26 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $248 −$168 -68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $214 +$34 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $187 +$27 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $170 +$16 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $157 +$13 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $105 +$52 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $309 −$205 -66%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $469 −$160 -34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,089 −$621 -57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $973 +$117 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $668 +$305 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,527 −$860 -56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,012 +$78 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$13 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,204 +$144 +12%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$19 +27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$10 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 +$4 +29%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$10 +250%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $17 +$8 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 36m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $9 37m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $9 37m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $113 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 6h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 19¢ $7 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $27 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $27 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 76¢ $56 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 83¢ $56 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $57 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $35 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $231 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $231 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $211 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $157 31h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $106 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $106 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 28¢ $81 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $248 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $214 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.68 · official $26.68 (match) · 96 history records