Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
96 0x96f4…32e8 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$172 (+4%) realized +$172 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$642per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$209
crypto 2% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -2.0% -11.3% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 7 -6.6% -15.5% 29% 29% -7.1%
≤90d 7 -6.6% -15.5% 29% 29% -7.1%
all 7 -6.6% -15.5% 29% 29% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 29% -7.1%
10% -23.6% 29% -16.0%
15% -31.0% 29% -24.1%
20% -37.7% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$275 vs −$86 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$3,694
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage23d
Avg bet$642
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $3,824 −$74 -2%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 04 $100 +$100 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 04 $250 −$250 -100%
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava Jun 01 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 01 $56 −$39 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$50 -97%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 01 $199 +$450 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $848 1h
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $228 1h
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $606 1h
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,991 3h
Sonmez vs. Bejlek: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $151 3h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $200 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $66 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $3 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $2 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $1 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 20d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $5 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 50¢ $58 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 50¢ $176 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 20d
Heilbronn: Max Houkes vs Emilio Nava BUY Max Houkes 25¢ $17 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $17 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $56 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 23d
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) SELL Team WE 100¢ $649 23d
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Team WE 30¢ $199 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,694.45 · official $3,694.45 (match) · 27 history records