Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
96 0x96f8…2560 sports 1253 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 180d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,308 (-4%) realized −$18,286 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%1009W / 243L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1,383est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,978now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,017
7 days−$4,016
14 days−$1,991
30 days−$855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$12,704
other 8% +$3,484
crypto 6% +$575
world 2% −$2,121
culture 0% +$18
tech 0% +$13
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -6.9% -15.8% 77% 31% -14.7%
≤30d 187 -1.1% -10.5% 82% 34% -10.1%
≤90d 503 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 35% -11.4%
all 1252 -2.7% -12.0% 81% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 35% -11.6%
10% -20.4% 17% -20.0%
15% -28.1% 9% -27.8%
20% -35.2% 4% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$263 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$3,978
Realized−$18,286
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1009 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,383
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1252 / 1253
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$382
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $4,000 $3,978 −$22 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $1,616 +$652 +40%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $504 −$504 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2,028 −$2,028 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 +$22 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,116 +$277 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,312 +$438 +13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,003 +$84 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,810 +$372 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,869 +$977 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,010 −$1,010 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,201 +$30 +2%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $506 −$362 -72%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $4,508 +$221 +5%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4,554 +$441 +10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,403 +$109 +8%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $2,433 +$2,007 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $303 −$303 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,018 −$2,018 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $400 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,011 +$426 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,814 +$490 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $70 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,009 +$313 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5,828 −$483 -8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $171 +$48 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $2,015 +$634 +31%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$12 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,708 −$4,708 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,504 +$162 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $501 +$37 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $301 −$301 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,017 −$457 -45%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$69 +34%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $401 +$16 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $502 +$86 +17%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $201 −$9 -5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,002 +$56 +6%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $501 +$27 +5%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $251 +$57 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $4,008 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 93¢ $398 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 70¢ $303 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 95¢ $1,870 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $1,313 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 71¢ $504 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $1,577 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $151 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $1,405 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $3,815 9h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $3,711 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $3,312 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $3,003 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 15h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $2,810 26h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $1,869 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 18¢ $144 46h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 61¢ $506 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1,201 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $4,728 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $501 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 76¢ $10 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $1,002 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $3,005 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2,584 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2,195 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,978.49 · official $3,978.49 (match) · 3500 history records