Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96fc…6119 crypto 484 markets active 0h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$739 (-3%) realized −$768 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%246W / 236L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$14
14 days+$12
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$204
crypto 11% −$10
other 6% −$541
sports 1% −$17
politics 1% +$7
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -1.3% -10.7% 72% 71% -8.5%
≤30d 251 -1.4% -10.8% 71% 70% -9.8%
≤90d 432 -5.4% -14.4% 52% 46% -26.4%
all 482 -5.3% -14.3% 51% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 45% -12.0%
10% -22.5% 31% -20.5%
15% -30.0% 16% -28.1%
20% -36.9% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$768
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses246 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)482 / 484
History coverage605d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 38¢ 56¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$5 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +129%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 +$32 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +178%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$5 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 5¢ $21 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 25h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $151 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.23 · official $6.46 (match) · 1647 history records