Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
96 0x96fc…2a5e crypto 467 markets active 2h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$276 (+1%) realized +$276 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%353W / 114L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$304
14 days+$182
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$217
other 3% +$147
politics 2% +$23
tech 0% −$87
culture 0% −$32
sports 0% −$38
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.1% -15.1% 50% 50% +15.0%
≤30d 65 -3.4% -12.6% 68% 43% -2.6%
≤90d 177 +8.3% -2.0% 76% 40% -6.4%
all 467 -0.4% -9.9% 76% 29% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 29% -9.0%
10% -18.5% 14% -17.7%
15% -26.4% 7% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$276
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses353 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)467 / 467
History coverage258d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 467 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $288 +$216 +75%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $70 −$62 -87%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$10 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +128%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 −$31 -51%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 +$3 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$58 -82%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 +$48 +37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$2 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$16 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$19 -75%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$65 +255%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $56 +$24 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $62 +$19 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $145 +$147 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $503 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 33h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $46 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 31¢ $30 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $13 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $70 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1014 history records