Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
97 0x9700…798f sports 318 markets active 13d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,907 (-3%) realized −$2,907 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%166W / 152L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$503est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$883
30 days+$3,747
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$5,548
sports 49% +$2,249
other 1% −$735
finance 1% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 101 +4.0% -5.9% 60% 57% +0.7%
≤90d 302 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 50% -13.5%
all 318 -2.4% -11.7% 52% 50% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -12.9%
10% -20.2% 45% -21.2%
15% -27.9% 39% -28.9%
20% -34.9% 32% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$279 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,907
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses166 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$503
Open positions0
Markets (closed)318 / 318
History coverage86d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 318 Trades
no open positions (121 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $511 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$148 +73%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $183 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$284 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $497 +$404 +81%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $504 −$500 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,732 +$272 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,477 +$255 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $861 +$615 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $621 −$614 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $824 −$280 -34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $403 +$137 +34%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $258 +$93 +36%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3,106 +$1,418 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,156 +$952 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,388 +$769 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,106 +$249 +22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,072 +$67 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,115 −$51 -5%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,308 −$1,299 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $925 +$409 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $204 +$332 +163%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $203 +$231 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $597 +$447 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 12 $351 −$187 -53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $301 +$47 +16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $199 +$105 +53%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $121 +$75 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 11 $185 +$40 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $196 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $78 −$74 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $41 +$34 +83%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$84 +82%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 07 $87 +$176 +203%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 +$46 +114%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $105 −$100 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $101 +$21 +21%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $127 −$125 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $182 +$110 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 12d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $102 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $304 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $102 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $202 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $351 13d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $203 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $183 13d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $102 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 99¢ $488 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $203 13d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $204 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $901 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $497 14d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $504 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,004 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,732 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,732 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,477 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,476 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $861 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $621 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 49¢ $284 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $289 14d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $540 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $540 14d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 74¢ $403 14d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $351 14d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 72¢ $258 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 986 history records