Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9703…69c2
other · 130 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,103,696 +1064%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32,300 · open +$155,288
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 380 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32,300
7 days+$32,300
14 days+$32,300
30 days+$32,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 79¢ 80¢ $44,495 $44,657 +$163 (+0%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 81¢ $1,663 $33,632 +$31,969 (+1922%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 76¢ 76¢ $26,973 $26,892 −$81 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $14,141 $15,811 +$1,670 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ $3,566 $14,924 +$11,358 (+318%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $11,430 $14,829 +$3,399 (+30%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 80¢ $990 $14,236 +$13,246 (+1338%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $692 $14,079 +$13,387 (+1935%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 19¢ 28¢ $7,899 $11,844 +$3,946 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ $2,119 $9,981 +$7,862 (+371%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 83¢ 84¢ $9,588 $9,689 +$100 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 52¢ 52¢ $8,400 $8,481 +$81 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $436 $8,390 +$7,955 (+1827%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $7,902 $8,158 +$256 (+3%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 75¢ 76¢ $8,091 $8,145 +$54 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $3,684 $7,954 +$4,270 (+116%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 74¢ $7,839 $7,892 +$53 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $7,616 $7,592 −$24 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $384 $7,013 +$6,629 (+1728%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 72¢ 72¢ $6,982 $6,959 −$23 (-0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,832 $6,831 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 46¢ 48¢ $6,570 $6,785 +$214 (+3%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 91¢ 92¢ $6,491 $6,530 +$38 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $692 $6,508 +$5,816 (+841%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $5,570 $6,451 +$881 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $2,724 −$2,724 -100%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $339 −$535 -158%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $220 +$973 +443%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $9,346 −$9,293 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $2,027 −$2,027 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 12 $9,040 −$9,923 -110%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $612 −$628 -103%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $5,045 −$5,045 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $480 −$480 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $337 −$34 -10%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 12 $131 −$131 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $8,284 −$8,284 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $56 +$4,893 +8762%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $0 +$6,050 +1589550%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 12 $2,519 +$365 +14%
Will Nebraska win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $59 −$41 -69%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $2,168 −$2,620 -121%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $346 −$451 -130%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 12 $8,111 −$8,043 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $826 −$826 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $52 +$87 +166%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $17 +$17,438 +102562%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 American League Championship? Jun 12 $356 +$2,142 +601%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $4,415 −$4,057 -92%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $4,791 −$5,015 -105%
Will Baylor win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $45 +$2,700 +5968%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $557 −$557 -100%
Will Notre Dame win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 12 $419 +$1,820 +435%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 12 $1,816 +$1,292 +71%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $756 −$756 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,678 −$1,678 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $5,829 −$5,829 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $2,156 +$18,576 +862%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Will the Panthers win the NFC Championship? Jun 12 $2 +$3,574 +171702%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $51 −$49 -95%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 12 $17 +$12,340 +72579%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $21 +$578 +2743%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 12 $329 −$329 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 12 $184 −$184 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $953 −$953 -100%
Utah vs. Ducks Jun 12 $2,759 −$2,759 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $628 −$601 -96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $6,100 −$6,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% +$155,370
sports 17% +$5,674
world 1% +$57
crypto 0% +$21
politics 0% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $1 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $3 0m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $5 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $4 1m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $6 1m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 2m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $1 4m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $14 5m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 86¢ $45 5m
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $12 5m
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 5m
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship S BUY Yes $4 5m
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship S BUY Yes $18 5m
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship S BUY Yes $4 5m
Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 National League Championship Se BUY Yes $1 5m
Will Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 National League Championship Se BUY Yes $2 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $8 5m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 55¢ $4 5m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $5 6m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $9 6m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 83¢ $5 6m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 83¢ $25 6m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 66¢ $19 6m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $2 6m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $4 7m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $3 7m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $30 7m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $55 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $21 8m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $0 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+227.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 +261.5% +227.1% 32% 32% -26.5%
≤30d 104 +261.5% +227.1% 32% 32% -26.5%
≤90d 104 +261.5% +227.1% 32% 32% -26.5%
all 104 +261.5% +227.1% 32% 32% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3411.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +227.1% 32% -26.5%
10% +195.8% 30% -33.5%
15% ← realistic here +167.2% 30% -40.0%
20% +141.0% 29% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616,400.83 · official $616,431.47 (match) · 3500 history records