Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9705…7442 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,264 (+40%) realized +$1,800 · open −$536
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day52.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$289
other 6% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +38.9%
≤30d 18 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +38.9%
≤90d 18 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +38.9%
all 18 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 50% +38.9%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 50% +25.6%
15% -8.7% 50% +13.5%
20% -17.7% 50% +2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$85 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized+$1,800
Unrealized−$536
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions4
Markets (closed)18 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day52.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 45¢ 46¢ $360 $364 +$4 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 24¢ 24¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 45¢ 0¢ $469 $1 −$468 (-100%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Flame Team 36¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $170 +$136 +80%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $73 +$127 +172%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $188 +$212 +113%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $177 +$301 +170%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 +$11 +179%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $135 −$14 -10%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 20 $117 −$116 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $180 +$379 +210%
Dota 2: Hive vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $170 −$166 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $141 −$139 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $218 +$357 +164%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $142 −$140 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $228 +$239 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $100 +$128 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $46 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $46 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $46 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 24¢ $25 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $229 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 17¢ $17 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 38¢ $39 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 48¢ $97 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 50¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 50¢ $212 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 50¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 49¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 49¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 49¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 49¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 36¢ $73 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 14¢ $14 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 20¢ $32 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 20¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 20¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 20¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 20¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 8¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 11¢ $23 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 47¢ $94 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL GLYPH 53¢ $22 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL GLYPH 53¢ $30 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL GLYPH 53¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL GLYPH 53¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL GLYPH 53¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.12 · official $396.12 · 105 history records