Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x9706…bc33 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$668 (+6%) realized +$839 · open −$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,290
7 days+$1,964
14 days+$1,710
30 days+$1,710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$161
sports 44% +$1,479
world 1% −$100
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +30.1% +17.7% 37% 34% +13.5%
≤30d 39 +23.5% +11.7% 38% 36% +8.1%
≤90d 39 +23.5% +11.7% 38% 36% +8.1%
all 40 +20.4% +9.0% 38% 35% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 35% +7.8%
10% -1.5% 35% -2.5%
15% -11.0% 30% -11.9%
20% -19.7% 30% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +81% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$385 vs −$163 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized+$839
Unrealized−$171
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions8
Markets (closed)40 / 55
History coverage364d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $200 $182 −$18 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 28¢ 26¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 17¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $506 +$356 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $511 +$519 +102%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $411 −$400 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $508 +$491 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $809 +$480 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $505 −$505 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $103 +$975 +949%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $506 +$371 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$121 +119%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $204 +$384 +188%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $506 +$300 +59%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $103 +$929 +904%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 +$400 +391%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$243 +238%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $347 −$346 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $420 +$128 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 −$105 -98%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 5h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 62¢ $506 6h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 6h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $506 6h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Se BUY 3¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Se BUY 3¢ $103 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 12¢ $308 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,289 20h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 74¢ $515 21h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 66¢ $563 21h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 21h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 29h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $506 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $505 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $809 29h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 32h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 32h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 C BUY 2¢ $103 32h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? AND Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 C BUY 2¢ $103 34h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 15¢ $103 36h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $806 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.26 · official $729.26 (match) · 88 history records