Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x970c…52c2 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,220 (-10%) realized −$1,220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days+$380
14 days+$380
30 days−$1,499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$1,639
other 14% +$340
sports 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +34.9% +22.0% 57% 57% +12.1%
≤30d 35 -9.0% -17.7% 66% 26% -20.6%
≤90d 35 -9.0% -17.7% 66% 26% -20.6%
all 35 -9.0% -17.7% 66% 26% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 26% -20.6%
10% -25.6% 23% -28.2%
15% -32.8% 17% -35.2%
20% -39.3% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$531) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$254 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage21d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$255 +250%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $485 +$224 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 +$287 +143%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,622 −$1,610 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $1,624 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $626 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $919 +$59 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $616 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $299 −$280 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $582 +$46 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $547 +$31 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $425 +$124 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 30? May 31 $301 +$21 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 +$60 +59%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 30 $544 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 29? May 30 $531 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $586 +$50 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 28 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $201 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 28 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 28 $102 +$44 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $110 +$26 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $203 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 28¢ $102 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $204 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $709 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $485 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $488 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $201 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on June 2? BUY No 89¢ $1,622 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? SELL No 89¢ $1,624 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 88¢ $1,624 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $646 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $978 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY No 93¢ $919 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? BUY No 97¢ $626 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? BUY No 0¢ $5 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? BUY No 0¢ $158 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? BUY No 0¢ $134 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on June 1? BUY No 0¢ $1 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $616 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? BUY No 0¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? SELL No 100¢ $628 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 92¢ $582 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $578 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $547 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $549 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 76¢ $425 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 30? BUY No 93¢ $301 19d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records