Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x970d…022e weather 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$163 (-13%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%12W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$60
14 days−$113
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$113
other 9% −$47
culture 8% −$11
finance 3% −$5
world 2% −$3
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.9% -23.9% 4% 0% -22.2%
≤30d 75 -13.1% -21.4% 16% 5% -23.0%
≤90d 76 -13.1% -21.4% 16% 5% -22.9%
all 76 -13.1% -21.4% 16% 5% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 5% -22.9%
10% -28.9% 4% -30.3%
15% -35.8% 3% -37.1%
20% -42.1% 1% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses12 / 64
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage51d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? No 57¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $29 −$8 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $47 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $21 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 16 $26 −$13 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 14 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 7? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? Jun 14 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 13 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
Will 6+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $11 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $28 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $28 −$3 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$14 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$3 -20%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 11? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 09 $24 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$7 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$3 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $14 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$5 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6? Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 08 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 08 $26 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 4? Jun 08 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 08 $22 −$17 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 5? Jun 08 $16 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7? Jun 08 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $26 −$6 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 03 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 52¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 52¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 54¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 54¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? SELL No 56¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 57¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 58¢ $3 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 58¢ $11 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 60¢ $11 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 63¢ $8 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 62¢ $12 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $47 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 63¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records