Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x970d…1aef other 94 markets active 3h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate72%64W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$55
14 days−$47
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$25
finance 6% +$7
world 5% $0
politics 1% +$6
economics 1% −$5
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -19.6% -27.2% 60% 13% -16.4%
≤30d 33 -8.9% -17.6% 76% 15% -12.7%
≤90d 80 -3.5% -12.7% 80% 25% -9.8%
all 89 -4.6% -13.7% 72% 22% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 22% -10.2%
10% -22.0% 11% -18.8%
15% -29.5% 4% -26.6%
20% -36.4% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses64 / 25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage107d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $229 +$9 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $45 −$11 -24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $93 +$4 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $93 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$8 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $30 −$17 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $97 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $73 +$7 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $26 −$13 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $28 −$6 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $28 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $74 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $32 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $9 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 27 $9 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $34 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $45 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $46 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.16 · official $64.16 (match) · 386 history records