Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x970e…613e other 161 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%59W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$55
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$71
sports 46% −$85
world 1% −$16
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -12.7% -21.0% 44% 38% -14.7%
≤30d 85 +9.0% -1.3% 42% 36% -2.2%
≤90d 157 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 33% -9.9%
all 158 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 33% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 33% -10.5%
10% -22.3% 29% -19.1%
15% -29.8% 28% -26.9%
20% -36.7% 27% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses59 / 99
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)158 / 161
History coverage232d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$3 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$38 +116%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $0 $0 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $81 +$8 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$12 +121%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$25 +248%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$2 +20%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 +$28 +137%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$7 +128%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 81¢ $38 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $33 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 8¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $20 8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 30h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 32h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $42 33h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $11 34h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 34h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.81 · official $31.81 (match) · 249 history records