Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:42:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
97 0x970f…2eab crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 499d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$6
crypto 11% +$1
tech 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.2% -9.4% 79% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

499d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage499d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 03 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $5,830 −$6 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Mar 21 $66 −$1 -1%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 20 $68 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 60d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $75 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 120d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $61 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 148d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 150d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $70 150d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $20 181d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $56 182d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $33 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $50 210d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 240d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 241d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $44 242d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $23 271d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $53 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 300d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 301d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $54 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $20 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $56 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 362d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 363d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 392d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.48 · official $71.48 (match) · 115 history records