Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9713…57dc crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 419d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$562 (-16%) realized −$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$863
7 days−$863
14 days−$863
30 days−$863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,128
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -18.3% -26.0% 45% 35% -37.5%
≤30d 40 -18.3% -26.0% 45% 35% -37.5%
≤90d 40 -18.3% -26.0% 45% 35% -37.5%
all 48 -19.4% -27.1% 44% 35% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 35% -39.4%
10% -34.1% 29% -45.2%
15% -40.4% 25% -50.5%
20% -46.3% 23% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$62 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

419d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage419d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 27 $154 −$59 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $57 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $130 −$104 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$57 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $101 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $129 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$113 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$26 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $233 −$78 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $95 +$21 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$50 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$54 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 23 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 22 $264 −$264 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 22 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 16 $250 −$42 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? May 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $59 +$57 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $66 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $52 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $55 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $29 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $54 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $161 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records