Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
97 0x9713…c39e other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$794 (-38%) realized −$738 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$883
30 days−$883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$787
crypto 24% −$36
other 17% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 16 +77.4% +60.5% 38% 25% -49.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +60.5% 25% -49.6%
10% +45.1% 25% -54.4%
15% +31.1% 25% -58.8%
20% +18.3% 19% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +208% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$122 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$738
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage236d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $200 $176 −$24 (-12%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 37¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+30%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $45 $4 −$41 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $888 −$883 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Nov 17 $10 +$212 +2122%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November Nov 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November Nov 12 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $128 +$72 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 6? Nov 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $146 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 05 $60 +$84 +139%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 03 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 03 $152 +$56 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $47 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $888 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November BUY Yes 4¢ $10 225d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104,000 and $106,000 on November BUY Yes 31¢ $20 225d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November BUY Yes 68¢ $150 225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 64¢ $128 228d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 6? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 231d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 6? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 231d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? BUY No 1¢ $4 232d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? BUY No 1¢ $2 232d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 5? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 232d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 5? BUY Yes 94¢ $140 232d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 233d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 6¢ $20 233d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 65¢ $50 233d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 15¢ $10 234d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 2¢ $5 234d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 36¢ $30 234d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 BUY Yes 38¢ $30 234d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 73¢ $152 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.09 · official $219.09 (match) · 28 history records