Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9714…5152 sports 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,230 (+5%) realized +$1,175 · open +$55
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%152W / 147L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,353
7 days+$1,702
14 days+$1,415
30 days+$1,570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$446
other 40% +$820
crypto 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +16.9% +5.8% 70% 65% +5.2%
≤30d 187 -1.3% -10.7% 53% 48% -1.6%
≤90d 299 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 46% -4.3%
all 299 -6.4% -15.3% 51% 46% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 46% -4.3%
10% -23.4% 41% -13.5%
15% -30.8% 34% -21.8%
20% -37.6% 30% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$2,258
Realized+$1,175
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses152 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions7
Markets (closed)299 / 306
History coverage85d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 88¢ 97¢ $880 $970 +$90 (+10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 79¢ 97¢ $568 $694 +$126 (+22%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 64¢ $268 $270 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) PortlandFire 48¢ 46¢ $142 $137 −$4 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 44¢ $142 $131 −$10 (-7%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 43¢ 20¢ $115 $55 −$60 (-52%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 139 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $302 +$156 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $272 +$307 +113%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $477 +$151 +32%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $141 +$153 +108%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $136 +$153 +113%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $143 +$72 +50%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $576 +$151 +26%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $114 +$147 +129%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $124 +$28 +23%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $122 −$120 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $329 +$155 +47%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $267 −$267 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $121 +$154 +127%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $142 +$154 +108%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,141 +$123 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $142 +$154 +108%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $882 +$128 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $363 +$156 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $440 −$435 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 22 $159 −$157 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $787 +$161 +20%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $242 +$155 +64%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $196 +$138 +70%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $841 +$34 +4%
Will Ceará SC vs. Botafogo FC end in a draw? Jun 21 $121 +$52 +43%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $162 +$47 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $107 +$103 +96%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $562 +$51 +9%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $19 +$51 +270%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $68 +$48 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $285 +$49 +17%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 19 $66 +$52 +79%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $111 −$111 -100%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 +$51 +113%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $62 +$19 +31%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $58 +$51 +89%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$73 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $48 +$50 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $89 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $884 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Iraq 43¢ $115 2h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-4.5) BUY PortlandFire 48¢ $142 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $268 4h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $142 11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $19 24h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $123 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $39 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $15 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $15 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $31 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $8 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $16 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $16 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $6 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $16 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $117 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $3 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $31 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $164 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $16 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $353 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $24 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $18 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $6 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $11 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $19 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $8 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,257.69 · official $2,257.69 (match) · 941 history records