Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9719…5965 other 20 markets active 1d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$325 (-16%) realized −$151 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$100 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,649
Realized−$151
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 28h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 28h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 28h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 28h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $94 28h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,649.16 · official $1,649.16 (match) · 22 history records