Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x971d…19bc crypto 489 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (183 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,862 (-21%) realized −$1,888 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%150W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day182.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$341
14 days−$842
30 days−$1,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,529
sports 3% −$136
other 2% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (183 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -22.2% -29.6% 27% 25% -17.7%
≤30d 488 -24.6% -31.8% 31% 28% -25.7%
≤90d 488 -24.6% -31.8% 31% 28% -25.7%
all 488 -24.6% -31.8% 31% 28% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover182.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 28% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 24% -32.8%
15% -44.3% 22% -39.3%
20% -49.7% 19% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$1,888
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses150 / 338
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)488 / 489
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day182.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 51¢ 68¢ $76 $103 +$26 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $447 −$84 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 −$53 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$68 +125%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$198 +227%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $249 −$136 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $114 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $107 +$40 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $54 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $64 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$119 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $74 +$31 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$33 +509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $23 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $8 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $18 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $87 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $33 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.74 · official $95.24 · 3500 history records