Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x971f…3b98 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-11%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$45
politics 11% $0
other 9% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -10.0% -18.6% 4% 0% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -19.7%
10% -26.4% 0% -27.4%
15% -33.5% 0% -34.4%
20% -40.0% 0% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage563d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 20 $0 $0 -70%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? May 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 -2%
Ducks vs. Flames Apr 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 17 $1 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Jan 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $0 $0 +0%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 29 $164 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 48d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 51d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 78d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $6 78d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 91d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 91d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 113d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 113d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $7 141d
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $7 141d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 177d
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 177d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 203d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 203d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 230d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 230d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 258d
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 260d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 288d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 290d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $1 326d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes $0 326d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes $1 326d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 362d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 362d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $1 425d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records