Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9720…afa4 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,114 (-4%) realized −$1,018 · open −$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%34W / 46L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$6,024now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$775
7 days+$764
14 days−$464
30 days−$1,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$267
sports 35% −$2,235
crypto 3% +$247
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.7% -3.4% 57% 57% -1.9%
≤30d 65 -3.6% -12.8% 46% 45% -14.6%
≤90d 80 -11.3% -19.8% 42% 41% -16.7%
all 80 -11.3% -19.8% 42% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 41% -16.7%
10% -27.5% 36% -24.7%
15% -34.5% 35% -32.0%
20% -40.9% 31% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$192 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$6,024
Realized−$1,018
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses34 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions27
Markets (closed)80 / 107
History coverage41d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $948 $1,059 +$111 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $809 $947 +$139 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $800 $682 −$118 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $625 $515 −$109 (-18%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? No 88¢ 100¢ $440 $500 +$60 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $376 $415 +$39 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $288 $405 +$118 (+41%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $305 $316 +$11 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $312 $315 +$3 (+1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $134 $115 −$19 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $62 $107 +$45 (+72%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $50 $106 +$56 (+114%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $99 $84 −$14 (-15%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $70 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $65 $37 −$29 (-44%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $47 $31 −$16 (-33%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-22%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $11 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 21¢ 0¢ $210 $2 −$208 (-99%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $31 $2 −$30 (-95%)
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $252 −$223 -88%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $525 +$275 +52%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $294 −$294 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $284 +$216 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $295 +$205 +70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 −$250 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $352 +$248 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $147 +$453 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $280 +$320 +114%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $524 +$76 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $467 +$233 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $451 +$73 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $229 −$225 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $178 +$322 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $455 −$455 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $451 +$49 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $225 +$275 +122%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 +$189 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $190 −$190 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $358 +$242 +67%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $171 +$129 +75%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $589 +$361 +61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $350 −$344 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $282 +$318 +113%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $325 −$324 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $802 −$205 -26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $280 +$220 +79%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $158 −$155 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $648 +$252 +39%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 06 $205 +$118 +57%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $687 −$680 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $57 −$57 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 06 $60 −$59 -99%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 05 $137 −$135 -99%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $161 −$158 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $100 +$400 +400%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $196 −$196 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $151 +$249 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $289 +$211 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 5¢ $29 37m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $316 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 21¢ $210 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 1h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 88¢ $442 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $17 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $12 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $217 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $525 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $90 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $204 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $284 7h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $190 24h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $254 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $295 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $352 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $280 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $147 30h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 33h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 34h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $59 34h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $69 34h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $200 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY No 87¢ $524 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $86 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,023.91 · official $6,023.91 (match) · 473 history records