Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9724…fbc7 world 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,850 (-20%) realized −$4,820 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%46W / 149L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$520
14 days−$173
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$3,775
crypto 11% −$473
other 4% −$223
finance 1% −$67
sports 0% +$217
politics 0% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -59.5% -63.4% 0% 0% -51.5%
≤30d 59 +13.6% +2.8% 20% 17% -3.4%
≤90d 128 +9.7% -0.7% 20% 16% -32.9%
all 195 +0.8% -8.8% 24% 19% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 19% -25.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 17% -33.0%
15% -25.5% 15% -39.5%
20% -32.8% 14% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$68 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized−$4,820
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses46 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)195 / 201
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$119
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $173 $165 −$8 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $82 $50 −$32 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+14%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes $16 $21 +$5 (+30%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $94 −$12 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $130 −$124 -95%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $134 −$75 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $33 −$22 -67%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $21 −$16 -74%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $21 −$12 -56%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $26 −$4 -17%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$23 -62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$38 -76%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $419 −$112 -27%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 09 $52 −$40 -77%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $64 −$5 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $37 −$20 -53%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $158 −$28 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $259 +$211 +82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $21 +$351 +1678%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $36 −$12 -33%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $32 −$8 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $92 −$12 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $50 +$27 +55%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $193 −$110 -57%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 01 $295 −$165 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $50 +$103 +207%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $200 −$50 -25%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o May 31 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 31 $22 −$20 -89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $18 −$16 -88%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $165 −$32 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $578 −$83 -14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $21 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $123 −$123 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $55 +$51 +93%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $55 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $60 +$127 +210%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $160 −$60 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $23 −$12 -52%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $11 −$8 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $313 −$67 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $20 −$16 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $55 −$20 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $64 +$7 +10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $29 −$8 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $4 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $13 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $80 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $7 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $89 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $82 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes $8 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $8 3d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes $12 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $38 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? SELL Yes $9 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $32 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes $14 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL Yes $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.25 · official $418.25 (match) · 3500 history records