Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9726…727c crypto 313 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$17 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%156W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$107
14 days−$149
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 45% -15.6%
≤30d 312 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -12.6%
≤90d 312 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -12.6%
all 312 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 50% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 49% -21.0%
15% -28.7% 48% -28.6%
20% -35.7% 48% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses156 / 156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)312 / 313
History coverage17d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 53¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$13 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$5 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$6 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$6 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$7 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$9 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$11 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$10 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.06 · official $9.53 (match) · 1218 history records