Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9726…349f crypto 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,099 (-7%) realized −$1,283 · open +$184
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%235W / 482L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$165
7 days−$165
14 days−$165
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$2,038
other 23% +$505
sports 7% −$14
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -35.9% -42.0% 17% 17% -67.7%
≤30d 51 -35.5% -41.6% 24% 24% -36.4%
≤90d 318 -25.1% -32.2% 26% 26% -20.4%
all 717 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 33% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 33% -20.1%
10% -31.1% 32% -27.7%
15% -37.8% 31% -34.7%
20% -43.9% 30% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$843
Realized−$1,283
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses235 / 482
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)717 / 721
History coverage123d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 717 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $297 $525 +$228 (+77%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $312 $308 −$4 (-1%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Yes 31¢ 6¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$53 +254%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$38 -24%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $116 −$115 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 19 $90 −$86 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 19 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 19 $54 +$90 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 19 $6 +$7 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 19 $43 −$31 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $34 +$27 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $29 +$66 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 19 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 19 $27 +$28 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 19 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 19 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 19 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 19 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 19 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 19 $37 −$15 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 19 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $19 +$69 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 19 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $19 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 19 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 19 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 19 $14 −$3 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $51 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $215 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $56 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 43¢ $115 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $116 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $116 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $842.69 · official $839.59 (match) · 2119 history records