Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x9727…295a other 113 markets active 12h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$13
politics 21% −$6
sports 6% +$17
economics 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 -0.6% -10.0% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 110 +1.8% -7.9% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 7% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage96d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 50¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 26 $183 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $405 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $218 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $336 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $194 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $195 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $193 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $197 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $399 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $14 $0 +3%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,152 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $369 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 12h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 19h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 37h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 42h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 47h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $13 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.67 · official $161.67 (match) · 331 history records