Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x972b…9b64 crypto 574 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (287 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$798 (+6%) realized +$823 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%222W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day287.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$409
7 days−$508
14 days−$519
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$544
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (287 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -17.8% -25.7% 37% 33% -13.8%
≤30d 572 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -13.0%
≤90d 572 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -13.0%
all 572 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover287.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 35% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -21.3%
15% -39.0% 23% -28.9%
20% -45.0% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$823
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses222 / 350
Open positions2
Markets (closed)572 / 574
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day287.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 572 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 62¢ 42¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-31%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 188 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $121 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$20 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $93 −$24 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $117 +$145 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$19 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $87 −$24 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$14 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $78 −$4 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $113 −$19 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $46 +$10 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$36 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$81 +448%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $133 +$72 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$7 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $44 +$16 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$8 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $47 +$13 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$11 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $78 +$50 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$21 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$8 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$50 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$44 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $145 −$7 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$15 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $97 −$27 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $46 +$17 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $97 −$32 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $16 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $31 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $47 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $22 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $0 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.57 · official $21.38 · 3500 history records