Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
97 0x972d…79eb other 7 markets active 4d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-10%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$3
crypto 38% +$1
sports 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 33% -66.9%
≤30d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -59.3%
≤90d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -59.3%
all 4 -4.5% -13.6% 25% 25% -59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -59.3%
10% -21.9% 25% -63.2%
15% -29.4% 25% -66.7%
20% -36.3% 25% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? SELL Down 48¢ $1 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 54¢ $1 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.23 · official $21.61 (match) · 24 history records