Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9732…5f8b crypto 448 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$516 (+10%) realized +$538 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%116W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$580
14 days+$580
30 days+$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$307
other 14% +$14
sports 13% +$504
world 1% +$181
weather 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +13.7% +2.8% 19% 18% +24.8%
≤30d 79 +17.3% +6.1% 20% 19% +27.4%
≤90d 425 -22.2% -29.7% 25% 24% -8.2%
all 435 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 25% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 25% -3.3%
10% -26.8% 24% -12.5%
15% -33.9% 23% -21.0%
20% -40.4% 22% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$9 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$538
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses116 / 319
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)435 / 448
History coverage91d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $92 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Vitinha: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $101 +$52 +51%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$105 +103%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 +$14 +54%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$132 +1288%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$28 +136%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$212 +2060%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 +$159 +776%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $19 +$52 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $94 3m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 31m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $39 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3h
Vitinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $21 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $32 8h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $104 16h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 18h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.13 · official $201.13 (match) · 1329 history records