Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9733…f5db other 18 markets active 20h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$45 (+5%) realized −$27 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$51
14 days+$67
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -35.4% -41.5% 20% 20% -27.8%
≤30d 15 +18.3% +7.1% 27% 27% -11.9%
≤90d 15 +18.3% +7.1% 27% 27% -11.9%
all 15 +18.3% +7.1% 27% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 27% -11.9%
10% -3.2% 27% -20.3%
15% -12.5% 27% -28.0%
20% -21.1% 27% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$50 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage18d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 64¢ $38 $129 +$91 (+239%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 28¢ $11 $56 +$45 (+411%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 3¢ $70 $6 −$64 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $62 +$138 +223%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $70 −$68 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $88 +$112 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $56 −$54 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$42 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $18 +$149 +837%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$38 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $82 −$69 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $71 +$129 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 31h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 31h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 31h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $35 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 12d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 12d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 13d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.90 · official $190.90 (match) · 48 history records