Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9733…f034 sports 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,432 (+1%) realized +$2,540 · open −$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%136W / 125L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$1,726per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$4,343est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$10,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$5,350
other 14% −$15,726
world 11% +$3,584
politics 6% +$24,951
crypto 0% +$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -18.1% -25.9% 50% 28% -20.3%
≤30d 115 -18.2% -26.0% 47% 37% -9.3%
≤90d 261 +6.9% -3.3% 52% 44% -7.9%
all 261 +6.9% -3.3% 52% 44% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 44% -7.9%
10% -12.5% 39% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -21.0% 35% -24.7%
20% -28.7% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,100) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,198 vs −$1,244 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$10,380
Realized+$2,540
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses136 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4,343
Open positions9
Markets (closed)261 / 268
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$1,726
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $2,568 $2,640 +$72 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 62¢ $2,070 $1,875 −$195 (-9%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $1,700 $1,760 +$60 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 58¢ $1,709 $1,738 +$30 (+2%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 60¢ $1,116 $1,039 −$77 (-7%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 86¢ $565 $546 −$19 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 73¢ $445 $464 +$19 (+4%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $298 $301 +$4 (+1%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 18 $30 −$590 -1967%
Will Mark Lohan win the 2026 Galway West by-election? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,083 −$3,060 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $5,940 +$60 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,631 +$4,869 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4,173 −$4,100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,433 +$3,578 +250%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $3,526 +$774 +22%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $1,860 −$1,860 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,700 +$3,300 +122%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $695 +$693 +100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,320 +$1,680 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,050 +$1,950 +186%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,469 −$1,469 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,830 −$3,830 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5,670 +$3,329 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,790 −$2,790 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,285 −$3,240 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,935 −$1,900 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5,400 +$4,600 +85%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,700 +$30 +1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,871 +$21 +1%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $226 +$6 +3%
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,802 −$4,802 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? Jun 12 $51 +$5 +9%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $734 −$734 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,796 −$1,760 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,120 −$98 -9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $3,395 +$3,027 +89%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,011 −$1,998 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,268 +$529 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $6,840 +$3,160 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 10 $3,841 +$2,159 +56%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $6,201 +$1,799 +29%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,740 +$260 +15%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $2,610 +$390 +15%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $4,440 −$4,440 -100%
Will the BLAST Slam VII Grand Final be a reverse sweep? Jun 07 $254 +$19 +7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,550 −$2,550 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1,290 +$1,710 +133%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $549 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $297 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $603 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $41 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,594 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $2,580 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $599 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $28 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $51 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $25 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $28 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $127 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $376 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $13 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $1,400 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $216 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,380.00 · official $10,380.00 (match) · 3500 history records