Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9739…159f other 116 markets active 5h ago coverage 77d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$19,138 (+267%) realized +$19,355 · open −$217
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%64W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day43.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 64% −$355
other 17% +$68
crypto 14% −$252
world 3% +$36
tech 1% −$26
politics 1% +$38
sports 0% −$5
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 36 +10.3% -0.2% 64% 53% -7.2%
≤90d 110 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 49% -15.5%
all 110 +3.0% -6.8% 58% 49% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 49% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 32% -23.6%
15% -23.8% 22% -31.0%
20% -31.3% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$21 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1,097
Realized+$19,355
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses64 / 46
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)110 / 116
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1,045 $952 −$93 (-9%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 10¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $28 $22 −$6 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $17 $12 −$5 (-28%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 66¢ $118 $3 −$115 (-97%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 28¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 13 $23 −$10 -42%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +44%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 12 $57 −$18 -32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -28%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $0 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +130%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 +$15 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $16 −$6 -37%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $56-$63 in June? Jun 05 $3 +$2 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $19 +$3 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 04 $251 −$60 -24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 04 $86 −$6 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 04 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 02 $282 +$114 +40%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 01 $65 +$37 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $76 +$9 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 01 $76 +$19 +25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? May 31 $202 +$46 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 30 $17 −$2 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $14 +$5 +34%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $1 +$1 +143%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 30 $9 +$2 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 30 $21 −$7 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $40 −$15 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $0 $0 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $49-$56 in June? May 25 $0 $0 +75%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June? May 25 $0 $0 +100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June? May 23 $6 +$6 +101%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $3 +$1 +28%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $458 −$226 -49%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $16 +$21 +128%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $31 −$14 -45%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 21 $17 −$17 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 20 $25 +$15 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes $27 8h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 8h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 9h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 11h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 34h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 34h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 34h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 34h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 34h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 42h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 42h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 43h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 45h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes $5 47h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes $11 47h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes $10 47h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $36 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $27 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 2d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,097.03 · official $1,097.03 (match) · 3500 history records