Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:28:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x973b…e0ac world 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%29W / 38L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$13
other 16% $0
politics 15% $0
crypto 7% +$1
sports 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.3% 80% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 56% 6% -7.1%
≤90d 16 +2.2% -7.6% 56% 6% -7.1%
all 67 -0.9% -10.3% 43% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -8.3%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses29 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage452d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $42 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $80 +$7 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 +$7 +27%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $28 −$2 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Aug 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Aug 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $2 $0 -30%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 02 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jul 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $13 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $21 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $43 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $42 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $11 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $7 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $39 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $35 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $5 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 40¢ $17 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 44¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 33¢ $27 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.66 · official $39.66 (match) · 204 history records