Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
97 0x973c…4a8c world 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 23% +$2
politics 6% +$1
sports 6% +$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 4% -9.5%
all 44 +2.5% -7.3% 52% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 9% -9.1%
10% -16.2% 5% -17.8%
15% -24.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -31.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage472d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $28 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $28 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $8 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $26 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $2 $0 +18%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $17 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 24 $16 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 22 $16 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 20m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 12h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $20 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $8 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $23 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $5 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $28 45h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $28 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $28 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $23 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $27 5d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $28 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $29 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records