Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x9746…475c crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$203 (+16%) realized +$216 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%73W / 40L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day79.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 +23.4% +11.6% 65% 65% +6.9%
≤30d 113 +23.4% +11.6% 65% 65% +6.9%
≤90d 113 +23.4% +11.6% 65% 65% +6.9%
all 113 +23.4% +11.6% 65% 65% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.6% 65% +6.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.9% 65% -3.4%
15% -8.8% 65% -12.7%
20% -17.8% 65% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$216
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses73 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day79.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $56 +$47 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$6 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$10 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$23 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$30 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$11 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.13 (match) · 235 history records