Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9748…725a other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3
other 23% +$1
politics 23% −$1
sports 12% +$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.3% -7.4% 75% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 0% -8.3%
all 41 +1.1% -8.6% 34% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -8.7%
10% -17.3% 5% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage271d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $27 +$2 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $7 −$2 -26%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $6 +$2 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $7 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Nov 19 $3 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $25 $0 -2%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $7 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 09 $6 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $6 $0 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $3 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 06 $2 $0 +10%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 52m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $36 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $36 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $30 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $27 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $12 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 25d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $28 26d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $28 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $24 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $8 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 27d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $16 185d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $6 206d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $6 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.41 · official $36.41 (match) · 160 history records