Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x9749…db3f other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$206 (+27%) realized +$209 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$100
sports 35% +$107
world 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +20.2% +8.7% 50% 50% +26.6%
≤30d 34 +20.2% +8.7% 50% 50% +26.6%
≤90d 34 +20.2% +8.7% 50% 50% +26.6%
all 34 +20.2% +8.7% 50% 50% +26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 50% +26.6%
10% -1.7% 47% +14.5%
15% -11.2% 44% +3.4%
20% -19.9% 41% -6.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.07 per $1 lost it wins $4.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$209
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 51
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $52 +$29 +55%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +650%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $50 −$2 -3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 23 $8 +$17 +206%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +129%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$24 +238%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $89 +$14 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $16 +$11 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$22 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +68%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $12 +$4 +30%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND BUY 5¢ $2 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY 62¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O BUY 28¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $49 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 18h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 21h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 21h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 21h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 27h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $44 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 74¢ $44 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.97 · official $239.98 · 78 history records