Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
97 0x9749…40fa crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$226 (-4%) realized −$226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.7%
≤30d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.7%
≤90d 3 -3.5% -12.7% 33% 33% -2.7%
all 81 -19.0% -26.7% 44% 36% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 36% -15.5%
10% -33.7% 22% -23.5%
15% -40.1% 15% -30.9%
20% -46.0% 11% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$23 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage136d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $37 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$33 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 15 $115 +$26 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$25 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 15 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 15 $40 −$22 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 15 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 15 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 15 $50 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 12 $41 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 12 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 12 $121 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 11 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 11 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 11 $130 +$25 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 11 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 11 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 11 $472 −$40 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 10 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 10 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 10 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 08 $129 −$127 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 08 $193 +$36 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 08 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 08 $269 −$21 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 08 $130 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 08 $80 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 08 $279 −$34 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 08 $60 +$48 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 07 $20 +$51 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 07 $124 +$56 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 07 $93 +$31 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $100 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $30 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.53 · official $92.53 (match) · 333 history records