Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
97 0x974b…076e sports 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,111 (+3%) realized +$1,111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 38L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$500est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$871
14 days−$854
30 days+$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$2,192
world 18% −$1,228
other 6% +$443
crypto 1% −$470
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.8% -14.8% 36% 32% -35.7%
≤30d 72 +16.4% +5.3% 47% 43% -6.5%
≤90d 72 +16.4% +5.3% 47% 43% -6.5%
all 72 +16.4% +5.3% 47% 43% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 43% -6.5%
10% -4.7% 42% -15.5%
15% -13.9% 40% -23.7%
20% -22.4% 36% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$289 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 80
History coverage19d
Avg bet$414
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $252 −$12 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $251 +$14 +6%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $66 −$64 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $55 +$65 +117%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $73 −$71 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $105 +$35 +33%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $95 +$163 +170%
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 23 $70 +$130 +186%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $65 −$65 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $77 +$84 +109%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $121 +$208 +172%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $40 +$160 +400%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $84 +$138 +165%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $345 −$345 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $520 +$67 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $232 +$95 +41%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $516 +$587 +114%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,875 −$523 -28%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,189 −$990 -83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $960 −$960 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $3,329 +$54 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $759 −$759 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $911 +$21 +2%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $325 +$975 +300%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,210 +$1,117 +92%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $491 −$488 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,490 +$742 +50%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,080 −$399 -37%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $470 −$470 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $240 +$360 +150%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $536 +$564 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $337 +$763 +226%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,254 −$1,254 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $525 −$517 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $92 +$308 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 34¢ $240 11m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $128 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $12 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $64 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $251 10h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 35¢ $252 11h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $66 19h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY 19¢ $154 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 20h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 20h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $30 21h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $73 24h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $55 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 35¢ $105 40h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 57¢ $141 40h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 41h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 41h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $40 41h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $47 41h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records