Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x974f…626d crypto 9 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-32%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -40.6% -46.3% 22% 22% -41.1%
≤30d 9 -40.6% -46.3% 22% 22% -41.1%
≤90d 9 -40.6% -46.3% 22% 22% -41.1%
all 9 -40.6% -46.3% 22% 22% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 22% -41.1%
10% -51.4% 11% -46.8%
15% -56.1% 11% -51.9%
20% -60.4% 11% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$16 +312%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records