Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9750…031d crypto 738 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,850 (-7%) realized −$1,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%411W / 507L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day114.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,019
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 451 -28.2% -35.1% 39% 24% -79.8%
≤30d 918 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 37% -29.8%
≤90d 918 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 37% -29.8%
all 918 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 37% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 37% -29.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 33% -36.5%
15% -37.3% 31% -42.7%
20% -43.5% 29% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$42 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses411 / 507
Open positions1
Markets (closed)918 / 738
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day114.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 918 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $1.36 (match) · 3500 history records